GUARANTEED 5%
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$29.28
46.11 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.38%
EV $25.58 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.20%
92 openings, odds method
Variance
68.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 108
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 92 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 92 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covertMacieja$29.2846.11 HUNT_COIN$6791,069 HUNT_COIN23.19x
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$29.2846.11 HUNT_COIN$6791,069 HUNT_COIN23.19x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.38%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $29.28 | 87.38% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.2%covert knife 0.7%gold 0.3%other 0.3%Covert 0.5%blue 5.0%#4b69ff 90.0%best hit $679 (23.19x)