Macieja5%
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.12
8.07 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.28%
EV $4.52 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
116.79%
231 openings, odds method
Variance
26.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 67
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 231 openings and 3.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 231 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $278 437 HUNT_COIN | 30.7% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.73× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient | 1 in 100 | $156 245 HUNT_COIN | 34.4% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.87× |
| USP-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · red | 1 in 67 | $56.67 89.26 HUNT_COIN | 18.8% | 4 | 3.5 | 1.15× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 1 in 50 | $35.77 56.33 HUNT_COIN | 15.8% | 8 | 4.6 | 1.73× |
| Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo)sticker | 95.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.3% | 215 | 219.4 | 0.98× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$5.128.07 HUNT_COIN$278437 HUNT_COIN54.18x
StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$5.128.07 HUNT_COIN$278437 HUNT_COIN54.18x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.28%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.12 | 88.28% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.5%Ancient 1.0%red 1.5%restricted 2.0%other 95.0%best hit $278 (54.18x)