mesytes cock

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$23.99

37.78 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

87.37%

EV $20.96 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

50.99%

270 openings, odds method

Variance

9.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 28

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

89.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

6 openings · below min

7 days

66 openings · below min

30 days

50.99%±36.20270 openings

since tracking started

50.99%±36.20270 openings

-0.5%122.8%246.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.37% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (14.79% – 87.19%, 270 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6	2.44%±242.8	—	odds
7d	66	51.86%±73.2	—	odds
30d	270	50.99%±36.2	−2.0σ	odds
All	270	50.99%±36.2	−2.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 270 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,000	$1,292 2,034 HUNT_COIN	1.2%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$1,250 1,969 HUNT_COIN	3.0%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| Fnaticsticker	1 in 2,000	$657 1,035 HUNT_COIN	1.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 400	$428 674 HUNT_COIN	5.1%	0	0.7	—
★ Talon Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 400	$424 668 HUNT_COIN	5.1%	0	0.7	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$324 511 HUNT_COIN	15.5%	0	2.7	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$265 418 HUNT_COIN	12.7%	4	2.7	1.48×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$222 350 HUNT_COIN	10.6%	3	2.7	1.11×
M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 100	$193 304 HUNT_COIN	9.2%	0	2.7	0.00×
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$161 254 HUNT_COIN	15.4%	3	5.4	0.56×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 50	$95.77 151 HUNT_COIN	9.1%	4	5.4	0.74×
AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 50	$94.03 148 HUNT_COIN	9.0%	6	5.4	1.11×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	30.0%	$1.63 2.56 HUNT_COIN	2.3%	78	81.0	0.96×
Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	29.4%	$0.22 0.34 HUNT_COIN	0.3%	75	79.3	0.95×
Souvenir Sawed-Off \| Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common	30.0%	$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN	0.0%	97	81.0	1.20×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · CommonDiabloPhD$23.9937.78 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x14h

Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$23.9937.78 HUNT_COIN$0.220.34 HUNT_COIN0.01x14h

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff$23.9937.78 HUNT_COIN$1.632.56 HUNT_COIN0.07x14h

Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common$23.9937.78 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x14h

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff$23.9937.78 HUNT_COIN$1.632.56 HUNT_COIN0.07x14h

Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common$23.9937.78 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x14h

Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · CommonDiabloPhD$23.9937.78 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x1d

Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$23.9937.78 HUNT_COIN$0.220.34 HUNT_COIN0.01x1d

Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common$23.9937.78 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.37%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$23.99	87.37%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 1.3%classified 2.1%other 0.1%covert knife 1.3%restricted 1.0%red 1.0%Covert 2.0%Ancient 2.0%#8847ff 30.0%blue 29.4%Common 30.0%best hit —