JUSTDOIT
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.57
5.62 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.39%
EV $3.12 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.04%
18 openings, odds method
Variance
8.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 15
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 18 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ P250 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary | 1 in 40 | $54.72 86.19 HUNT_COIN | 43.9% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $32.43 51.08 HUNT_COIN | 41.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff | 18.5% | $1.63 2.56 HUNT_COIN | 9.6% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.60× |
| Souvenir M4A4 | Mainframe (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon | 15.0% | $0.97 1.52 HUNT_COIN | 4.6% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 15.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.1% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 15.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.1% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.48× |
| Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common | 15.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.1% | 5 | 2.7 | 1.85× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer | 15.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.1% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common$3.575.62 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff$3.575.62 HUNT_COIN$1.632.56 HUNT_COIN0.46x
Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common$3.575.62 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.39%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.57 | 87.39% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedLegendary 2.5%covert 4.0%#8847ff 18.5%other 15.0%consumer 45.0%Common 15.0%best hit —