5 per banger
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.66
8.91 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.16%
EV $5.04 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
55.23%
327 openings, odds method
Variance
23.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 57
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 327 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $1,543 2,430 HUNT_COIN | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 400 | $339 534 HUNT_COIN | 16.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $136 214 HUNT_COIN | 13.5% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.22× |
| Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $90.08 142 HUNT_COIN | 17.9% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.31× |
| USP-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · red | 1 in 67 | $56.67 89.26 HUNT_COIN | 16.9% | 2 | 4.9 | 0.41× |
| USP-S | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 57 | $49.03 77.23 HUNT_COIN | 16.9% | 6 | 5.7 | 1.05× |
| Sticker | Baby Howlsticker · high | 50.0% | $0.81 1.28 HUNT_COIN | 8.1% | 162 | 163.5 | 0.99× |
| Sticker | Bananasticker · #4b69ff | 45.0% | $0.78 1.23 HUNT_COIN | 7.0% | 154 | 147.2 | 1.05× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.16%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.66 | 89.16% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.8%red 1.5%classified 1.7%high 50.0%#4b69ff 45.0%best hit —