mesytes 1% boom
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.40
6.93 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.39%
EV $3.85 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
144.28%
405 openings, odds method
Variance
90.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 250
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 405 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 405 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$4.406.93 HUNT_COIN$368580 HUNT_COIN83.65x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertTrevor Lett$4.406.93 HUNT_COIN$273430 HUNT_COIN62.03x
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$4.406.93 HUNT_COIN$226357 HUNT_COIN51.46x
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$4.406.93 HUNT_COIN$226357 HUNT_COIN51.46x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.39%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.40 | 87.39% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 0.1%restricted 0.1%covert 0.5%other 99.0%rare 0.1%classified 0.1%#EB4B4B 0.1%best hit $736 (167.3x)