10er big hit stn242
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.49
11.79 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.64%
EV $6.64 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
41.71%
94 openings, odds method
Variance
34.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 62
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 94 openings and 1.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 94 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 10,000 | $2,623 4,131 HUNT_COIN | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare | 1 in 1,000 | $693 1,091 HUNT_COIN | 10.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 400 | $401 632 HUNT_COIN | 15.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Survival Knifeknife · Immortal | 1 in 80 | $154 242 HUNT_COIN | 29.0% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 67 | $54.91 86.49 HUNT_COIN | 12.4% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.13× |
| Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $37.23 58.63 HUNT_COIN | 14.0% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.43× |
| Sticker | fer (Foil)sticker | 1 in 23 | $20.29 31.95 HUNT_COIN | 13.4% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.97× |
| Sticker | Separate Pixelssticker · high | 90.0% | $0.12 0.19 HUNT_COIN | 1.6% | 86 | 84.6 | 1.02× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$7.4911.79 HUNT_COIN$54.9186.49 HUNT_COIN7.34x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.64%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $7.49 | 88.64% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 0.0%rare 0.1%classified 0.3%Immortal 1.3%covert 4.0%other 4.4%high 90.0%best hit —