Wager Free 20%
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.30
3.62 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.51%
EV $2.03 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
102.48%
54 openings, odds method
Variance
8.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 54 openings and 2.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 54 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $54.91 86.49 HUNT_COIN | 27.0% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · #8847FF | 1 in 25 | $19.03 29.98 HUNT_COIN | 37.4% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.39× |
| Sticker | Gambit Gaming (Holo)sticker | 1 in 20 | $8.53 13.44 HUNT_COIN | 21.0% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× |
| Sticker | Natus Vincere (Foil)sticker | 10.0% | $1.72 2.71 HUNT_COIN | 8.5% | 5 | 5.4 | 0.93× |
| StatTrak™ P90 | Traction (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec | 30.0% | $0.31 0.49 HUNT_COIN | 4.6% | 15 | 16.2 | 0.93× |
| Sticker | hades (Glitter)sticker | 50.0% | $0.06 0.1 HUNT_COIN | 1.6% | 30 | 27.0 | 1.11× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · #8847FF$2.303.62 HUNT_COIN$19.0329.98 HUNT_COIN8.28x
StatTrak™ P90 | Traction (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$2.303.62 HUNT_COIN$0.310.49 HUNT_COIN0.14x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.51%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.30 | 88.51% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.0%#8847FF 4.0%other 65.0%milspec 30.0%best hit —