Budget Flip

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price
$36.27
57.12 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.38%
EV $31.69 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.87%
737 openings, odds method
Variance
9.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
65.81%±56.72108 openings
7 days
89.69%±22.72673 openings
30 days
87.87%±21.71737 openings
since tracking started
87.87%±21.71737 openings
8.5%65.8%123.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h10865.81%±56.7−0.7σodds
7d67389.69%±22.7+0.2σodds
30d73787.87%±21.7+0.0σodds
All73787.87%±21.7+0.0σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 737 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 200$1,111 1,750 HUNT_COIN17.5%33.70.81×
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife1 in 200$827 1,303 HUNT_COIN13.0%43.71.09×
AK-47 | X-Ray (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 100$445 701 HUNT_COIN14.0%107.41.36×
AWP | Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 33$179 282 HUNT_COIN16.9%1722.10.77×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Slate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 20$44.44 70 HUNT_COIN7.0%3636.90.98×
StatTrak™ USP-S | Stainless (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec10.0%$33.06 52.07 HUNT_COIN10.4%7273.70.98×
USP-S | Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)weapon · pink15.0%$29.17 45.95 HUNT_COIN13.8%129110.51.17×
R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert15.0%$14.50 22.84 HUNT_COIN6.9%106110.50.96×
Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Common15.0%$0.33 0.52 HUNT_COIN0.2%96110.50.87×
Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Field-Tested)weapon · blue15.0%$0.22 0.34 HUNT_COIN0.1%103110.50.93×
Sticker | Hot Rod Heatsticker · #4b69ff20.0%$0.11 0.18 HUNT_COIN0.1%161147.41.09×
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covertHobbi3ten$36.2757.12 HUNT_COIN$1,1111,750 HUNT_COIN30.64x
★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert$36.2757.12 HUNT_COIN$1,1111,750 HUNT_COIN30.64x
★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert$36.2757.12 HUNT_COIN$1,1111,750 HUNT_COIN30.64x
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife$36.2757.12 HUNT_COIN$8271,303 HUNT_COIN22.81x
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife$36.2757.12 HUNT_COIN$8271,303 HUNT_COIN22.81x
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife$36.2757.12 HUNT_COIN$8271,303 HUNT_COIN22.81x
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife$36.2757.12 HUNT_COIN$8271,303 HUNT_COIN22.81x

Latest dropsnewest first

R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert$36.2757.12 HUNT_COIN$14.5022.84 HUNT_COIN0.40x
USP-S | Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)weapon · pink$36.2757.12 HUNT_COIN$29.1745.95 HUNT_COIN0.80x
Sticker | Hot Rod Heatsticker · #4b69ff$36.2757.12 HUNT_COIN$0.110.18 HUNT_COIN0.00x
R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert$36.2757.12 HUNT_COIN$14.5022.84 HUNT_COIN0.40x
Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$36.2757.12 HUNT_COIN$0.220.34 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Sticker | Hot Rod Heatsticker · #4b69ffLeva_alt2$36.2757.12 HUNT_COIN$0.110.18 HUNT_COIN0.00x
StatTrak™ USP-S | Stainless (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$36.2757.12 HUNT_COIN$33.0652.07 HUNT_COIN0.91x
Sticker | Hot Rod Heatsticker · #4b69ff$36.2757.12 HUNT_COIN$0.110.18 HUNT_COIN0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.38%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$36.2787.38%11
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 19.5%covert knife 0.5%restricted 5.0%mil spec 10.0%pink 15.0%Common 15.0%blue 15.0%#4b69ff 20.0%best hit $1,111 (30.64x)