AK Hunter
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$86.18
136 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.38%
EV $75.31 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
54.92%
40 openings, odds method
Variance
5.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 40 openings and 2.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 40 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $1,326 2,089 HUNT_COIN | 17.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| AK-47 | Jet Set (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $972 1,531 HUNT_COIN | 25.8% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $416 656 HUNT_COIN | 16.6% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $267 420 HUNT_COIN | 14.2% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| AK-47 | Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $194 306 HUNT_COIN | 12.9% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× |
| AK-47 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $83.33 131 HUNT_COIN | 5.5% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× |
| AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $34.50 54.34 HUNT_COIN | 6.9% | 6 | 6.0 | 1.00× |
| AK-47 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec | 15.0% | $2.18 3.44 HUNT_COIN | 0.4% | 8 | 6.0 | 1.33× |
| AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon | 25.0% | $0.19 0.3 HUNT_COIN | 0.1% | 12 | 10.0 | 1.20× |
| AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial | 25.0% | $0.06 0.1 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 10 | 10.0 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$86.18136 HUNT_COIN$34.5054.34 HUNT_COIN0.40x
AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Minimal Wear)weapon · UncommonHobbi3ten$86.18136 HUNT_COIN$0.190.3 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.38%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $86.18 | 87.38% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 33.0%classified 2.0%milspec 15.0%Uncommon 25.0%industrial 25.0%best hit $972 (11.28x)