Valentines
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$43.25
68.12 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.67%
EV $38.35 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.49%
160 openings, odds method
Variance
5.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 160 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $913 1,438 HUNT_COIN | 23.8% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× |
| Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted | 1 in 100 | $421 663 HUNT_COIN | 11.0% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.88× |
| Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 50 | $81.71 129 HUNT_COIN | 4.3% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.25× |
| Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted | 1 in 17 | $61.68 97.14 HUNT_COIN | 9.6% | 11 | 9.6 | 1.15× |
| AWP | Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $47.92 75.48 HUNT_COIN | 25.0% | 31 | 32.0 | 0.97× |
| StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 20.0% | $24.01 37.81 HUNT_COIN | 12.5% | 36 | 32.0 | 1.13× |
| Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · #8847FF | 25.0% | $19.03 29.98 HUNT_COIN | 12.4% | 38 | 40.0 | 0.95× |
| Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink | 25.0% | $2.10 3.31 HUNT_COIN | 1.4% | 36 | 40.0 | 0.90× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryHulk$43.2568.12 HUNT_COIN$9131,438 HUNT_COIN21.11x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$43.2568.12 HUNT_COIN$24.0137.81 HUNT_COIN0.56x
AWP | Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedPeitschenMeister$43.2568.12 HUNT_COIN$47.9275.48 HUNT_COIN1.11x
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$43.2568.12 HUNT_COIN$24.0137.81 HUNT_COIN0.56x
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$43.2568.12 HUNT_COIN$24.0137.81 HUNT_COIN0.56x
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedPeitschenMeister$43.2568.12 HUNT_COIN$24.0137.81 HUNT_COIN0.56x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.67%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $43.25 | 88.67% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 1.0%Restricted 1.0%restricted 28.0%classified 20.0%#8847FF 25.0%pink 25.0%best hit $913 (21.11x)