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Ascention

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price
$163.36
257 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.67%
EV $144.85 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
45.68%
48 openings, odds method
Variance
10.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
24 openings · below min
30 days
48 openings · below min
since tracking started
48 openings · below min
-0.5%93.5%187.5%

Small sample. 48 openings and 4.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d2458.13%±128.6—odds
30d4845.68%±90.9—odds
All4845.68%±90.9—odds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 48 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AWP | Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$14.2K 22,288 HUNT_COIN9.8%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 111$2,546 4,010 HUNT_COIN15.8%00.4—
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$964 1,518 HUNT_COIN6.7%00.5—
M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 33$610 960 HUNT_COIN12.6%11.40.69×
Sticker | Zeus (Gold)sticker1 in 20$401 631 HUNT_COIN13.8%12.40.42×
★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert1 in 13$285 448 HUNT_COIN14.7%43.61.11×
★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 13$146 230 HUNT_COIN7.6%23.60.56×
StatTrak™ USP-S | Blueprint (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec10.0%$120 189 HUNT_COIN8.3%24.80.42×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified15.0%$47.23 74.38 HUNT_COIN4.9%77.20.97×
Souvenir FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Legendary25.0%$32.81 51.68 HUNT_COIN5.7%1712.01.42×
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial25.0%$0.85 1.34 HUNT_COIN0.1%1412.01.17×
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classifiedSparven$163257 HUNT_COIN$610960 HUNT_COIN3.73x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$163257 HUNT_COIN$146230 HUNT_COIN0.89x
Souvenir FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Legendary$163257 HUNT_COIN$32.8151.68 HUNT_COIN0.20x
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$163257 HUNT_COIN$0.851.34 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Sticker | Zeus (Gold)sticker$163257 HUNT_COIN$401631 HUNT_COIN2.45x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$163257 HUNT_COIN$47.2374.38 HUNT_COIN0.29x
Souvenir FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · LegendarySparven$163257 HUNT_COIN$32.8151.68 HUNT_COIN0.20x
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$163257 HUNT_COIN$0.851.34 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$163257 HUNT_COIN$0.851.34 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$163257 HUNT_COIN$0.851.34 HUNT_COIN0.01x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$163257 HUNT_COIN$47.2374.38 HUNT_COIN0.29x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.67%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$16388.67%11
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.1%covert knife 0.9%classified 3.0%other 5.0%Covert 7.5%extraordinary 7.5%mil spec 10.0%Classified 15.0%Legendary 25.0%industrial 25.0%best hit $610 (3.73x)