Gold Gold GOLD

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$102.13

161 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

88.67%

EV $90.56 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

49.25%

151 openings, odds method

Variance

18.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 50

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

93.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

141 openings · below min

30 days

151 openings · below min

since tracking started

151 openings · below min

-0.5%61.8%124.0%

Small sample. 151 openings and 3.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	141	51.83%±71.5	—	odds
30d	151	49.25%±69.1	—	odds
All	151	49.25%±69.1	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 151 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 400	$6,415 10,103 HUNT_COIN	17.7%	0	0.4	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 400	$4,236 6,672 HUNT_COIN	11.7%	0	0.4	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 400	$2,736 4,309 HUNT_COIN	7.6%	0	0.4	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 400	$2,597 4,091 HUNT_COIN	7.2%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$971 1,529 HUNT_COIN	10.7%	2	1.5	1.32×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic	1 in 40	$451 711 HUNT_COIN	12.5%	4	3.8	1.06×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 40	$438 690 HUNT_COIN	12.1%	3	3.8	0.79×
M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 29	$96.86 153 HUNT_COIN	3.7%	10	5.3	1.89×
M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 29	$82.97 131 HUNT_COIN	3.2%	2	5.3	0.38×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 29	$76.39 120 HUNT_COIN	3.0%	2	5.3	0.38×
AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 22	$57.37 90.35 HUNT_COIN	2.9%	6	6.8	0.88×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$49.93 78.64 HUNT_COIN	2.8%	8	7.6	1.06×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$35.77 56.33 HUNT_COIN	2.0%	5	7.6	0.66×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	15.0%	$18.41 28.99 HUNT_COIN	3.0%	17	22.6	0.75×
AWP \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	16.0%	$0.17 0.26 HUNT_COIN	0.0%	29	24.2	1.20×
AK-47 \| Olive Polycam (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	17.0%	$0.15 0.23 HUNT_COIN	0.0%	32	25.7	1.25×
M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Industrial Grade	20.0%	$0.08 0.12 HUNT_COIN	0.0%	31	30.2	1.03×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$102161 HUNT_COIN$9711,529 HUNT_COIN9.51x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$102161 HUNT_COIN$0.170.26 HUNT_COIN0.00x2d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$102161 HUNT_COIN$18.4128.99 HUNT_COIN0.18x2d

M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Industrial Grade$102161 HUNT_COIN$0.080.12 HUNT_COIN0.00x2d

AWP | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialHobbi3ten$102161 HUNT_COIN$0.170.26 HUNT_COIN0.00x2d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$102161 HUNT_COIN$18.4128.99 HUNT_COIN0.18x3d

AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9$102161 HUNT_COIN$0.150.23 HUNT_COIN0.00x3d

M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Industrial Grade$102161 HUNT_COIN$0.080.12 HUNT_COIN0.00x3d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epicHobbi3ten$102161 HUNT_COIN$451711 HUNT_COIN4.42x3d

AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9$102161 HUNT_COIN$0.150.23 HUNT_COIN0.00x3d

M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Industrial Grade$102161 HUNT_COIN$0.080.12 HUNT_COIN0.00x3d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.67%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$102	88.67%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedknifes 0.3%covert 20.8%covert knife 1.0%epic 2.5%classified 2.5%mil spec 3.5%industrial 19.5%Classified 3.5%red 4.5%restricted 5.0%#5e98d9 17.0%Industrial Grade 20.0%best hit $971 (9.51x)