All in

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1,177.65

1,855 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

88.67%

EV $1,044.22 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

24.17%

6 openings, odds method

Variance

6.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 25

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

6 openings · below min

30 days

6 openings · below min

since tracking started

6 openings · below min

-0.5%112.0%224.5%

Small sample. 6 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	6	24.17%±199.6	—	odds
30d	6	24.17%±199.6	—	odds
All	6	24.17%±199.6	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$18.8K 29,640 HUNT_COIN	18.0%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$14.2K 22,288 HUNT_COIN	13.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · contraband	1 in 50	$10.3K 16,163 HUNT_COIN	19.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 33	$6,389 10,062 HUNT_COIN	18.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 33	$4,507 7,098 HUNT_COIN	12.9%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$1,542 2,428 HUNT_COIN	7.4%	0	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$1,509 2,377 HUNT_COIN	7.2%	1	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 13	$194 306 HUNT_COIN	1.4%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 13	$193 304 HUNT_COIN	1.4%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	15.0%	$5.18 8.16 HUNT_COIN	0.1%	1	0.9	—
Dual Berettas \| Elite 1.6 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	25.0%	$0.15 0.24 HUNT_COIN	0.0%	0	1.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	25.0%	$0.08 0.12 HUNT_COIN	0.0%	3	1.5	2.00×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified$1,1781,855 HUNT_COIN$1,5092,377 HUNT_COIN1.28x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Calligraffiti (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff$1,1781,855 HUNT_COIN$0.080.12 HUNT_COIN0.00x6d

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Doomkitty (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff$1,1781,855 HUNT_COIN$5.188.16 HUNT_COIN0.00x6d

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified$1,1781,855 HUNT_COIN$1,5092,377 HUNT_COIN1.28x6d

M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · redDameTime$1,1781,855 HUNT_COIN$193304 HUNT_COIN0.16x6d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.67%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$1,178	88.67%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 1.0%covert 8.5%contraband 2.0%legendary 3.0%#ffd700 3.0%restricted 5.0%classified 5.0%red 7.5%#4b69ff 40.0%mil spec 25.0%best hit $1,509 (1.28x)