No Guts
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$53.96
84.99 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.67%
EV $47.85 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
33.00%
41 openings, odds method
Variance
2.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 41 openings and 6.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 41 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Gut Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covertPeitschenMeister$53.9684.99 HUNT_COIN$77.78123 HUNT_COIN1.44x
AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedPeitschenMeister$53.9684.99 HUNT_COIN$0.620.98 HUNT_COIN0.01x
AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricteddwiauhdas$53.9684.99 HUNT_COIN$0.620.98 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.67%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $53.96 | 88.67% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 23.0%covert knife 7.0%other 15.0%restricted 15.0%#5e98d9 20.0%High Grade 20.0%best hit —