Fisherman

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$23.30

36.69 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

88.66%

EV $20.65 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.31%

1,017 openings, odds method

Variance

8.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 14

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

87.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

95.14%±32.15328 openings

7 days

90.26%±18.72968 openings

30 days

89.31%±18.261,017 openings

since tracking started

89.31%±18.261,017 openings

62.5%95.3%128.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	328	95.14%±32.2	+0.4σ	odds
7d	968	90.26%±18.7	+0.2σ	odds
30d	1,017	89.31%±18.3	+0.1σ	odds
All	1,017	89.31%±18.3	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,017 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 500	$1,229 1,936 HUNT_COIN	11.9%	1	2.0	0.49×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 333	$422 664 HUNT_COIN	6.1%	7	3.1	2.29×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 200	$211 332 HUNT_COIN	5.1%	5	5.1	0.98×
P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$150 236 HUNT_COIN	7.3%	7	10.2	0.69×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 50	$137 216 HUNT_COIN	13.3%	26	20.3	1.28×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 33	$96.51 152 HUNT_COIN	14.0%	20	30.5	0.66×
M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$95.14 150 HUNT_COIN	27.6%	66	61.0	1.08×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 14	$8.33 13.12 HUNT_COIN	2.8%	69	71.2	0.97×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	15.0%	$5.63 8.87 HUNT_COIN	4.1%	148	152.5	0.97×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Hard Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	15.0%	$5.56 8.76 HUNT_COIN	4.0%	159	152.5	1.04×
SSG 08 \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	25.0%	$2.48 3.91 HUNT_COIN	3.0%	267	254.3	1.05×
Souvenir FAMAS \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec	25.0%	$0.58 0.92 HUNT_COIN	0.7%	242	254.3	0.95×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert$23.3036.69 HUNT_COIN$1,2291,936 HUNT_COIN52.76x3h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SSG 08 | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$23.3036.69 HUNT_COIN$2.483.91 HUNT_COIN0.11x1h

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Hard Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$23.3036.69 HUNT_COIN$5.568.76 HUNT_COIN0.24x1h

★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert$23.3036.69 HUNT_COIN$96.51152 HUNT_COIN4.14x1h

Souvenir FAMAS | Dark Water (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Mil SpecHobbi3ten$23.3036.69 HUNT_COIN$0.580.92 HUNT_COIN0.03x1h

SSG 08 | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$23.3036.69 HUNT_COIN$2.483.91 HUNT_COIN0.11x1h

AK-47 | Searing Rage (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink$23.3036.69 HUNT_COIN$8.3313.12 HUNT_COIN0.36x1h

★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert$23.3036.69 HUNT_COIN$96.51152 HUNT_COIN4.14x1h

SSG 08 | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specHobbi3ten$23.3036.69 HUNT_COIN$2.483.91 HUNT_COIN0.11x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.66%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$23.30	88.66%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 4.0%classified 1.0%covert knife 2.0%restricted 6.0%pink 7.0%#d32ee6 15.0%milspec 15.0%mil spec 25.0%Mil Spec 25.0%best hit $1,229 (52.76x)