Old School
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$150.90
238 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.67%
EV $133.80 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
157.26%
28 openings, odds method
Variance
6.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 28 openings and 1.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $1,993 3,139 HUNT_COIN | 14.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $1,972 3,106 HUNT_COIN | 29.5% | 3 | 0.6 | — |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $964 1,518 HUNT_COIN | 21.6% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 25 | $438 690 HUNT_COIN | 13.1% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.89× |
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $196 309 HUNT_COIN | 7.3% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $102 160 HUNT_COIN | 3.8% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $95.14 150 HUNT_COIN | 3.6% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× |
| MP7 | Skulls (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue | 30.0% | $27.78 43.76 HUNT_COIN | 6.2% | 7 | 8.4 | 0.83× |
| AUG | Steel Sentinel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial | 45.0% | $0.04 0.07 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 16 | 12.6 | 1.27× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Karambit | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covertGremlin$151238 HUNT_COIN$1,9723,106 HUNT_COIN13.07x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.67%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $151 | 88.67% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 6.0%classified 9.0%restricted 10.0%blue 30.0%industrial 45.0%best hit $1,972 (13.07x)