KNIFE5%
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.89
12.43 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.33%
EV $6.89 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
71.57%
129 openings, odds method
Variance
16.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 129 openings and 2.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 129 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife | 1 in 200 | $329 518 HUNT_COIN | 23.8% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 67 | $160 251 HUNT_COIN | 34.7% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.52× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $69.44 109 HUNT_COIN | 30.2% | 2 | 3.9 | 0.52× |
| Sticker | Knife Clubsticker · High Grade | 95.0% | $0.81 1.28 HUNT_COIN | 11.2% | 125 | 122.5 | 1.02× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.33%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $7.89 | 87.33% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 0.5%covert 4.5%High Grade 95.0%best hit —