Arulds Pit
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$17.50
27.56 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.37%
EV $15.29 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
0.07%
14 openings, odds method
Variance
25.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 14 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $1,007 1,586 HUNT_COIN | 32.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $555 875 HUNT_COIN | 18.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Big Game (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $233 366 HUNT_COIN | 15.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Sticker | iBUYPOWERsticker | 1 in 100 | $208 328 HUNT_COIN | 13.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| USP-S | Target Acquired (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $161 254 HUNT_COIN | 10.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| AK-47 | B the Monster (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $144 228 HUNT_COIN | 9.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 95.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.1% | 14 | 13.3 | 1.05× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.37%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $17.50 | 87.37% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.0%extraordinary 1.0%other 1.0%classified 1.0%consumer 95.0%best hit —