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High Risk High Reward

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price
$65.70
103 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.67%
EV $58.26 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.53%
890 openings, odds method
Variance
29.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 67
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
76 openings · below min
7 days
81.99%±36.99835 openings
30 days
82.53%±35.83890 openings
since tracking started
82.53%±35.83890 openings
-0.5%66.5%133.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h7610.37%±122.6—odds
7d83581.99%±37.0−0.4σodds
30d89082.53%±35.8−0.3σodds
All89082.53%±35.8−0.3σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 890 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic1 in 400$4,035 6,354 HUNT_COIN17.3%22.20.90×
AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 200$2,778 4,375 HUNT_COIN23.8%114.52.47×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendary1 in 133$2,203 3,470 HUNT_COIN28.4%06.70.00×
M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 100$1,250 1,969 HUNT_COIN21.5%48.90.45×
M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 20$95.14 150 HUNT_COIN8.2%4444.50.99×
R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · blue12.5%$1.89 2.98 HUNT_COIN0.4%119111.31.07×
Glock-18 | Catacombs (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec25.0%$0.69 1.09 HUNT_COIN0.3%201222.50.90×
MAC-10 | Silver (Factory New)weapon · light blue25.0%$0.27 0.43 HUNT_COIN0.1%232222.51.04×
StatTrak™ P250 | Re.built (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec30.0%$0.08 0.13 HUNT_COIN0.0%277267.01.04×
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic$65.70103 HUNT_COIN$4,0356,354 HUNT_COIN61.41x
★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic$65.70103 HUNT_COIN$4,0356,354 HUNT_COIN61.41x
AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$65.70103 HUNT_COIN$2,7784,375 HUNT_COIN42.28x
AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$65.70103 HUNT_COIN$2,7784,375 HUNT_COIN42.28x
AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$65.70103 HUNT_COIN$2,7784,375 HUNT_COIN42.28x
AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$65.70103 HUNT_COIN$2,7784,375 HUNT_COIN42.28x
AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$65.70103 HUNT_COIN$2,7784,375 HUNT_COIN42.28x
AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertHobbi3ten$65.70103 HUNT_COIN$2,7784,375 HUNT_COIN42.28x
AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$65.70103 HUNT_COIN$2,7784,375 HUNT_COIN42.28x
AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$65.70103 HUNT_COIN$2,7784,375 HUNT_COIN42.28x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · blue$65.70103 HUNT_COIN$1.892.98 HUNT_COIN0.03x
StatTrak™ P250 | Re.built (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$65.70103 HUNT_COIN$0.080.13 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Glock-18 | Catacombs (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec$65.70103 HUNT_COIN$0.691.09 HUNT_COIN0.01x
MAC-10 | Silver (Factory New)weapon · light blue$65.70103 HUNT_COIN$0.270.43 HUNT_COIN0.00x
StatTrak™ P250 | Re.built (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$65.70103 HUNT_COIN$0.080.13 HUNT_COIN0.00x
MAC-10 | Silver (Factory New)weapon · light blueHobbi3ten$65.70103 HUNT_COIN$0.270.43 HUNT_COIN0.00x
StatTrak™ P250 | Re.built (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$65.70103 HUNT_COIN$0.080.13 HUNT_COIN0.00x
R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · blue$65.70103 HUNT_COIN$1.892.98 HUNT_COIN0.03x
StatTrak™ P250 | Re.built (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$65.70103 HUNT_COIN$0.080.13 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Glock-18 | Catacombs (Factory New)weapon · Mil SpecHobbi3ten$65.70103 HUNT_COIN$0.691.09 HUNT_COIN0.01x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.67%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$65.7088.67%9
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedepic 0.3%covert 0.5%legendary 0.8%classified 1.0%restricted 5.0%blue 12.5%Mil Spec 25.0%light blue 25.0%milspec 30.0%best hit $4,035 (61.41x)