Budget Dreamer
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 6 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.37
11.6 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.66%
EV $6.53 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
354.47%
6 openings, sample method
Variance
4.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 6 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 20 | $61.77 97.29 HUNT_COIN | 47.3% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| StatTrak™ USP-S | Stainless (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec | 1 in 20 | $33.06 52.07 HUNT_COIN | 25.3% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $13.89 21.88 HUNT_COIN | 10.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $12.43 19.57 HUNT_COIN | 9.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Souvenir SSG 08 | Tropical Storm (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon | 10.0% | $3.89 6.13 HUNT_COIN | 6.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| MP9 | Dart (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $0.53 0.84 HUNT_COIN | 0.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| P90 | Freight (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 10.0% | $0.23 0.37 HUNT_COIN | 0.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade | 50.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.1% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$7.3711.6 HUNT_COIN$61.7797.29 HUNT_COIN8.39x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$7.3711.6 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$7.3711.6 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$7.3711.6 HUNT_COIN$61.7797.29 HUNT_COIN8.39x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$7.3711.6 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
StatTrak™ USP-S | Stainless (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil specMrPotatoHeadTheOG$7.3711.6 HUNT_COIN$33.0652.07 HUNT_COIN4.49x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.66%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 14:05 UTC | $7.37 | 88.66% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 5.0%mil spec 15.0%covert 5.0%classified 5.0%other 10.0%Rare 10.0%Consumer Grade 50.0%best hit —