Lost it all

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$56.53

89.04 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

88.67%

EV $50.13 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

59.59%

36 openings, odds method

Variance

20.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 50

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

6 openings · below min

30 days

36 openings · below min

since tracking started

36 openings · below min

-0.5%179.5%359.5%

Small sample. 36 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	6	0.44%±358.6	—	odds
30d	36	59.59%±146.4	—	odds
All	36	59.59%±146.4	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$2,028 3,194 HUNT_COIN	40.4%	0	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$1,509 2,377 HUNT_COIN	30.1%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 50	$339 534 HUNT_COIN	13.5%	3	0.7	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 17	$85.97 135 HUNT_COIN	10.3%	1	2.2	0.46×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	10.0%	$23.49 36.99 HUNT_COIN	4.7%	4	3.6	1.11×
USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New)weapon · restricted	10.0%	$1.45 2.29 HUNT_COIN	0.3%	6	3.6	1.67×
Souvenir Sawed-Off \| Snake Camo (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade	10.0%	$1.23 1.93 HUNT_COIN	0.2%	4	3.6	1.11×
Souvenir M4A4 \| Mainframe (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon	10.0%	$0.97 1.52 HUNT_COIN	0.2%	1	3.6	0.28×
Souvenir Five-SeveN \| Forest Night (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade	10.0%	$0.83 1.31 HUNT_COIN	0.2%	1	3.6	0.28×
Souvenir G3SG1 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Common	10.0%	$0.17 0.26 HUNT_COIN	0.0%	2	3.6	0.56×
Souvenir FAMAS \| Faulty Wiring (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon	10.0%	$0.08 0.12 HUNT_COIN	0.0%	4	3.6	1.11×
Souvenir P90 \| Verdant Growth (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade	10.0%	$0.03 0.04 HUNT_COIN	0.0%	9	3.6	2.50×
P250 \| Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	10.0%	$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN	0.0%	1	3.6	0.28×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.