Gold Star
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$24.70
38.91 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.36%
EV $21.58 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
9.30%
14 openings, odds method
Variance
40.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 125
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
94.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 14 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 333 | $2,236 3,522 HUNT_COIN | 31.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $1,264 1,991 HUNT_COIN | 29.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Sticker | Virtus.prosticker | 1 in 118 | $416 656 HUNT_COIN | 16.4% | 13 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $214 336 HUNT_COIN | 9.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Foil)sticker | 1 in 100 | $123 194 HUNT_COIN | 5.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| P90 | Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $32.01 50.41 HUNT_COIN | 3.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| P90 | Blind Spot (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet | 1 in 23 | $13.66 21.52 HUNT_COIN | 2.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 1 in 20 | $8.06 12.7 HUNT_COIN | 1.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| Sticker | Virtus.prosticker | 85.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.1% | 13 | 11.9 | 1.09× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.36%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $24.70 | 87.36% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.8%other 86.8%violet 4.3%Restricted 5.0%best hit —