Christmas Miracles
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$12.83
20.2 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.40%
EV $11.21 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
14.21%
53 openings, odds method
Variance
32.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 67
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 53 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 53 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $979 1,542 HUNT_COIN | 43.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Flip Knife | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $222 350 HUNT_COIN | 19.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ Gut Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $140 221 HUNT_COIN | 12.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| P90 | Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 67 | $32.01 50.41 HUNT_COIN | 4.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $16.53 26.04 HUNT_COIN | 4.4% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× |
| G3SG1 | The Executioner (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $11.35 17.88 HUNT_COIN | 3.0% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| Sticker | Natus Vincere (Foil)sticker | 40.0% | $1.72 2.71 HUNT_COIN | 6.1% | 25 | 21.2 | 1.18× |
| Sticker | Natus Vinceresticker | 50.0% | $1.37 2.16 HUNT_COIN | 6.1% | 27 | 26.5 | 1.02× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.40%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $12.83 | 87.40% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 4.0%classified 6.0%other 90.0%best hit —