10% Insane Knifes
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$28.47
44.84 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.39%
EV $24.88 from 17 items
Observed RTP, 30d
136.88%
196 openings, odds method
Variance
27.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 67
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 196 openings and 2.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 196 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert$28.4744.84 HUNT_COIN$2,7364,309 HUNT_COIN96.10x
★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · gold$28.4744.84 HUNT_COIN$9611,514 HUNT_COIN33.75x
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$28.4744.84 HUNT_COIN$7081,116 HUNT_COIN24.88x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert$28.4744.84 HUNT_COIN$2,7364,309 HUNT_COIN96.10x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.39%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $28.47 | 87.39% | 17 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedknifes 0.0%covert 4.7%gold 0.2%covert knife 3.1%#ffd700 1.0%Immortal 1.0%High Grade 90.0%best hit $2,736 (96.10x)