5% flip stn242
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$18.67
29.4 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.37%
EV $16.31 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
207.86%
412 openings, odds method
Variance
68.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 217
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 412 openings and 1.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 412 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo)sticker | 1 in 10,000 | $6,667 10,500 HUNT_COIN | 4.1% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert | 1 in 500 | $2,250 3,544 HUNT_COIN | 27.6% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 400 | $1,543 2,430 HUNT_COIN | 23.7% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.97× |
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold | 1 in 500 | $1,048 1,651 HUNT_COIN | 12.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 200 | $458 722 HUNT_COIN | 14.0% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.94× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Lore (Well-Worn)knife · gold | 1 in 100 | $172 271 HUNT_COIN | 10.5% | 6 | 4.1 | 1.46× |
| Desert Eagle | Starcade (Field-Tested)weapon · rare | 1 in 35 | $26.86 42.31 HUNT_COIN | 4.7% | 9 | 11.7 | 0.77× |
| Sticker | In The Fire (Foil)sticker · exotic | 50.0% | $0.46 0.73 HUNT_COIN | 1.4% | 210 | 206.0 | 1.02× |
| Sticker | Small Armssticker · #4B69FF | 45.0% | $0.41 0.64 HUNT_COIN | 1.1% | 179 | 185.4 | 0.97× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert$18.6729.4 HUNT_COIN$2,2503,544 HUNT_COIN120.5x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert$18.6729.4 HUNT_COIN$2,2503,544 HUNT_COIN120.5x
★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$18.6729.4 HUNT_COIN$1,5432,430 HUNT_COIN82.66x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.37%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $18.67 | 87.37% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 0.0%Covert 0.2%covert 0.3%gold 1.2%extraordinary 0.5%rare 2.8%exotic 50.0%#4B69FF 45.0%best hit $6,667 (357.1x)