5% low stn242
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.83
6.04 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.42%
EV $3.35 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
45.38%
207 openings, odds method
Variance
21.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 207 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir AK-47 | Panthera onca (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Legendary | 1 in 200 | $164 258 HUNT_COIN | 24.4% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $160 251 HUNT_COIN | 23.8% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.97× |
| USP-S | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $49.03 77.23 HUNT_COIN | 29.3% | 1 | 4.1 | 0.24× |
| UMP-45 | Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec | 1 in 50 | $34.71 54.67 HUNT_COIN | 20.7% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.97× |
| Sticker | Monstersticker · High Grade | 50.0% | $0.06 0.1 HUNT_COIN | 0.9% | 96 | 103.5 | 0.93× |
| Sticker | Clicking Headssticker · Rare | 45.0% | $0.06 0.1 HUNT_COIN | 0.9% | 105 | 93.2 | 1.13× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.42%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.83 | 87.42% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedLegendary 0.5%covert 0.5%classified 2.0%milspec 2.0%High Grade 50.0%Rare 45.0%best hit —