Tero

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$3.92

6.18 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

87.25%

EV $3.42 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

75.67%

298 openings, odds method

Variance

23.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 100

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

91.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

30 openings · below min

7 days

82 openings · below min

30 days

298 openings · below min

since tracking started

298 openings · below min

-0.5%105.0%210.5%

Small sample. 298 openings and 3.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	30	38.19%±171.4	—	odds
7d	82	31.82%±103.7	—	odds
30d	298	75.67%±54.4	—	odds
All	298	75.67%±54.4	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 298 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$238 375 HUNT_COIN	34.8%	1	1.5	0.67×
★ Navaja Knifeknife · covert	1 in 200	$115 181 HUNT_COIN	16.8%	1	1.5	0.67×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 50	$22.22 35 HUNT_COIN	13.0%	8	6.0	1.34×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Virus (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$7.99 12.59 HUNT_COIN	4.7%	5	6.0	0.84×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$7.98 12.57 HUNT_COIN	4.7%	6	6.0	1.01×
Sticker \| Dragon Lore (Foil)sticker · exotic	1 in 50	$7.58 11.94 HUNT_COIN	4.4%	6	6.0	1.01×
Sticker \| Battle Scarredsticker · violet	1 in 20	$3.44 5.42 HUNT_COIN	5.0%	14	14.9	0.94×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 20	$3.43 5.41 HUNT_COIN	5.0%	16	14.9	1.07×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Cobalt Halftone (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 20	$3.40 5.36 HUNT_COIN	5.0%	15	14.9	1.01×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Torque (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 20	$2.22 3.49 HUNT_COIN	3.2%	17	14.9	1.14×
G3SG1 \| Azure Zebra (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$2.20 3.47 HUNT_COIN	3.2%	12	14.9	0.81×
Souvenir R8 Revolver \| Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon	66.0%	$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN	0.2%	197	196.7	1.00×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$3.926.18 HUNT_COIN$238375 HUNT_COIN60.67x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon$3.926.18 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x14h

G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$3.926.18 HUNT_COIN$2.203.47 HUNT_COIN0.56x14h

Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weaponz30cutie$3.926.18 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x14h

Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon$3.926.18 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x14h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.25%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$3.92	87.25%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.5%covert 0.5%Mythical 2.0%restricted 2.0%mil spec 7.0%exotic 2.0%violet 5.0%#4b69ff 5.0%Mil Spec Grade 5.0%milspec 5.0%other 66.0%best hit $238 (60.67x)