Damila my nig
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$39.37
62.01 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.37%
EV $34.40 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
178.73%
17 openings, sample method
Variance
4.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 16
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 17 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 17 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $326 514 HUNT_COIN | 19.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 57 | $326 514 HUNT_COIN | 16.6% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 40 | $229 361 HUNT_COIN | 16.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New)weapon · pink | 1 in 33 | $179 282 HUNT_COIN | 15.6% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 33 | $146 230 HUNT_COIN | 12.7% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ Paracord Knife | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife | 1 in 17 | $110 173 HUNT_COIN | 19.1% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.96× |
| Sticker | Clown Wigsticker · #4b69ff | 81.8% | $0.15 0.23 HUNT_COIN | 0.3% | 10 | 13.9 | 0.72× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Paracord Knife | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife$39.3762.01 HUNT_COIN$110173 HUNT_COIN2.78x
★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$39.3762.01 HUNT_COIN$146230 HUNT_COIN3.70x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.37%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 14:05 UTC | $39.37 | 87.37% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.0%classified 1.8%covert knife 8.5%pink 3.0%extraordinary 3.0%#4b69ff 81.8%best hit —