dreamssss
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1,001.78
1,578 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.38%
EV $875.34 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
218.69%
6 openings, odds method
Variance
7.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 6 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary$1,0021,578 HUNT_COIN$4,0146,322 HUNT_COIN4.01x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary$1,0021,578 HUNT_COIN$4,0146,322 HUNT_COIN4.01x
AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertDameTime$1,0021,578 HUNT_COIN$2,8404,473 HUNT_COIN2.84x
★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$1,0021,578 HUNT_COIN$1,5432,430 HUNT_COIN1.54x
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700$1,0021,578 HUNT_COIN$6391,006 HUNT_COIN0.64x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$1,0021,578 HUNT_COIN$1,5432,430 HUNT_COIN1.54x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary$1,0021,578 HUNT_COIN$4,0146,322 HUNT_COIN4.01x
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700$1,0021,578 HUNT_COIN$6391,006 HUNT_COIN0.64x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary$1,0021,578 HUNT_COIN$4,0146,322 HUNT_COIN4.01x
AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertDameTime$1,0021,578 HUNT_COIN$2,8404,473 HUNT_COIN2.84x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.38%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1,002 | 87.38% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.5%other 0.5%covert 17.0%legendary 2.0%#ffd700 20.0%restricted 60.0%best hit $4,014 (4.01x)