CS Hunt 4%
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$28.10
44.26 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.90%
EV $24.70 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
189.09%
36 openings, odds method
Variance
22.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 63
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
96.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 36 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $1,111 1,750 HUNT_COIN | 22.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Kukri Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $957 1,507 HUNT_COIN | 19.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)knife · epic | 1 in 167 | $777 1,224 HUNT_COIN | 18.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $625 984 HUNT_COIN | 12.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Bayonetknife · covert | 1 in 200 | $463 729 HUNT_COIN | 9.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Flip Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $392 618 HUNT_COIN | 7.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B | 1 in 250 | $313 492 HUNT_COIN | 5.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 333 | $138 217 HUNT_COIN | 1.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| SCAR-20 | Emerald (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 500 | $43.83 69.04 HUNT_COIN | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Sticker | Baby Medusasticker · high | 96.0% | $0.57 0.9 HUNT_COIN | 2.2% | 33 | 34.6 | 0.95× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Kukri Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covertKirua$28.1044.26 HUNT_COIN$9571,507 HUNT_COIN34.04x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B$28.1044.26 HUNT_COIN$313492 HUNT_COIN11.12x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $28.10 | 87.90% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.5%epic 0.6%#EB4B4B 0.4%covert knife 0.3%restricted 0.2%high 96.0%best hit $957 (34.04x)