TraumA Snowball
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.72
1.14 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.86%
EV $0.63 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.33%
1,178 openings, odds method
Variance
3.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,178 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 59 | $6.53 10.29 HUNT_COIN | 17.7% | 16 | 20.0 | 0.80× |
| StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 1 in 42 | $5.28 8.32 HUNT_COIN | 20.2% | 27 | 28.3 | 0.96× |
| CZ75-Auto | Eco (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 31 | $3.46 5.45 HUNT_COIN | 17.6% | 31 | 37.7 | 0.82× |
| Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 18 | $2.65 4.18 HUNT_COIN | 24.1% | 62 | 67.1 | 0.92× |
| Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 14 | $1.50 2.37 HUNT_COIN | 16.8% | 81 | 82.5 | 0.98× |
| Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue | 10.0% | $0.15 0.23 HUNT_COIN | 2.3% | 111 | 117.8 | 0.94× |
| Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo)sticker | 70.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 1.4% | 850 | 824.6 | 1.03× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$0.721.14 HUNT_COIN$5.288.32 HUNT_COIN7.30x
Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · LegendarySzafir skins.army$0.721.14 HUNT_COIN$2.654.18 HUNT_COIN3.67x
Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue$0.721.14 HUNT_COIN$0.150.23 HUNT_COIN0.20x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.86%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.72 | 86.86% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 1.7%restricted 5.6%Legendary 5.7%mil spec 7.0%blue 10.0%other 70.0%best hit —