10% Waste Of Time
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$22.79
35.9 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.38%
EV $19.92 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
134.21%
52 openings, odds method
Variance
16.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 52 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 52 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | LGB eSportssticker | 1 in 200 | $694 1,094 HUNT_COIN | 17.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 200 | $655 1,032 HUNT_COIN | 16.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $601 947 HUNT_COIN | 15.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Sticker | HellRaiserssticker | 1 in 200 | $556 875 HUNT_COIN | 13.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $238 375 HUNT_COIN | 12.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec | 1 in 100 | $194 306 HUNT_COIN | 9.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $81.25 128 HUNT_COIN | 4.1% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $29.17 45.95 HUNT_COIN | 2.9% | 3 | 1.0 | 2.88× |
| USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical | 1 in 33 | $22.22 35 HUNT_COIN | 3.3% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× |
| Sticker | Seeing Redsticker · Rare | 90.0% | $1.11 1.75 HUNT_COIN | 5.0% | 45 | 46.8 | 0.96× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$22.7935.9 HUNT_COIN$6551,032 HUNT_COIN28.75x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified$22.7935.9 HUNT_COIN$29.1745.95 HUNT_COIN1.28x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.38%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $22.79 | 87.38% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 1.0%extraordinary 1.5%covert 0.5%mil spec 1.0%restricted 1.0%classified 2.0%Mythical 3.0%Rare 90.0%best hit $694 (30.47x)