40 Dream
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.73
2.73 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.54%
EV $1.52 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
99.40%
36 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
40.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 36 openings and 14.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 25 | $6.53 10.29 HUNT_COIN | 17.2% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 1 in 17 | $5.28 8.32 HUNT_COIN | 20.9% | 5 | 2.2 | 2.31× |
| Sticker | Kimberlysticker · Rare | 30.0% | $1.86 2.93 HUNT_COIN | 36.8% | 13 | 10.8 | 1.20× |
| Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet | 60.0% | $0.63 1 HUNT_COIN | 25.1% | 18 | 21.6 | 0.83× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.54%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.73 | 87.54% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 4.0%restricted 6.0%Rare 30.0%violet 60.0%best hit —