Lucky 25
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.16
3.4 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.57%
EV $1.89 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.29%
99 openings, odds method
Variance
6.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 99 openings and 4.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 99 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $29.14 45.9 HUNT_COIN | 30.8% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.52× |
| M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)weapon · violet | 1 in 50 | $27.43 43.21 HUNT_COIN | 29.0% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× |
| Sticker | Lotus (Glitter)sticker · remarkable | 1 in 20 | $6.43 10.12 HUNT_COIN | 17.0% | 5 | 5.0 | 1.01× |
| USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 1 in 14 | $3.68 5.8 HUNT_COIN | 13.6% | 6 | 6.9 | 0.87× |
| R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · blue | 1 in 11 | $1.89 2.98 HUNT_COIN | 9.0% | 11 | 8.9 | 1.23× |
| Sticker | NAF (Gold)sticker | 75.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.5% | 73 | 74.3 | 0.98× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffPolapi SKINS skins.army$2.163.4 HUNT_COIN$3.685.8 HUNT_COIN1.71x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.57%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.16 | 87.57% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 2.0%violet 2.0%remarkable 5.0%#4b69ff 7.0%blue 9.0%other 75.0%best hit —