5% Baller
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.55
11.89 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.64%
EV $6.62 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.57%
104 openings, odds method
Variance
25.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 104 openings and 2.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 104 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)knife · epic | 1 in 2,000 | $777 1,224 HUNT_COIN | 5.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Talon Knifeknife · covert | 1 in 667 | $566 891 HUNT_COIN | 12.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 333 | $309 486 HUNT_COIN | 14.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Scorched (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 67 | $123 193 HUNT_COIN | 27.8% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.28× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 33 | $86.53 136 HUNT_COIN | 39.2% | 5 | 3.1 | 1.60× |
| Sticker | TV On Miragesticker · high | 45.0% | $0.03 0.04 HUNT_COIN | 0.2% | 42 | 46.8 | 0.90× |
| Sticker | Retro Zeussticker · Rare | 50.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.1% | 55 | 52.0 | 1.06× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.64%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $7.55 | 87.64% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 0.1%covert 0.1%covert knife 4.8%high 45.0%Rare 50.0%best hit —