5% Red Wet Dream
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.18
11.31 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.39%
EV $6.28 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.78%
74 openings, odds method
Variance
40.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 74 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 74 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 2,000 | $1,250 1,969 HUNT_COIN | 10.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $1,111 1,750 HUNT_COIN | 8.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 1,000 | $486 766 HUNT_COIN | 7.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Paracord Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 333 | $255 402 HUNT_COIN | 12.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 200 | $193 304 HUNT_COIN | 15.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 1 in 67 | $81.25 128 HUNT_COIN | 19.4% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.80× |
| UMP-45 | Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec | 1 in 40 | $34.71 54.67 HUNT_COIN | 13.8% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.62× |
| StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare | 1 in 20 | $2.99 4.71 HUNT_COIN | 2.4% | 5 | 3.7 | 1.35× |
| Sticker | Romanov's Fire (Foil)sticker · exotic | 90.0% | $0.71 1.12 HUNT_COIN | 10.2% | 63 | 66.6 | 0.95× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$7.1811.31 HUNT_COIN$81.25128 HUNT_COIN11.31x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.39%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $7.18 | 87.39% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.1%covert 0.4%covert knife 0.1%mil spec 0.5%restricted 1.5%milspec 2.5%Rare 5.0%exotic 90.0%best hit —