Rags to Riches
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.29
11.48 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.72%
EV $6.47 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
41.04%
30 openings, odds method
Variance
23.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 30 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $338 533 HUNT_COIN | 52.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $54.65 86.08 HUNT_COIN | 21.1% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| USP-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $33.26 52.39 HUNT_COIN | 25.7% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Field-Tested)weapon · blue | 1 in 15 | $0.22 0.34 HUNT_COIN | 0.2% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.03× |
| Dual Berettas | Stained (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5E98D9 | 10.0% | $0.17 0.26 HUNT_COIN | 0.3% | 5 | 3.0 | 1.67× |
| StatTrak™ P2000 | Sure Grip (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff | 12.5% | $0.11 0.18 HUNT_COIN | 0.2% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.53× |
| MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff | 17.5% | $0.03 0.05 HUNT_COIN | 0.1% | 5 | 5.3 | 0.95× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 7 | 6.0 | 1.17× |
| Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon | 25.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 7 | 7.5 | 0.93× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon$7.2911.48 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon$7.2911.48 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weaponPOSK$7.2911.48 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon$7.2911.48 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.72%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $7.29 | 88.72% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 8.5%blue 6.5%#5E98D9 10.0%#4b69ff 30.0%consumer 20.0%other 25.0%best hit —