beefy free
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.21
1.91 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.38%
EV $1.06 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
106.91%
400 openings, odds method
Variance
45.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 80
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 400 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Paracord Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $255 402 HUNT_COIN | 12.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| AWP | Crakow! (Factory New)weapon · rare | 1 in 1,000 | $123 193 HUNT_COIN | 11.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| AWP | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red | 1 in 286 | $54.65 86.08 HUNT_COIN | 18.1% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× |
| P250 | Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical | 1 in 133 | $26.79 42.2 HUNT_COIN | 19.0% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.33× |
| Sticker | fer (Foil)sticker | 1 in 67 | $15.77 24.83 HUNT_COIN | 22.3% | 6 | 6.0 | 1.00× |
| Sticker | Battle Scarred (Holo)sticker · Mythical | 1 in 44 | $7.49 11.79 HUNT_COIN | 15.9% | 11 | 9.0 | 1.22× |
| Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon | 95.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 1.1% | 380 | 380.0 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon$1.211.91 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon$1.211.91 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon$1.211.91 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon$1.211.91 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon$1.211.91 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weaponMarius Tutunaru$1.211.91 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon$1.211.91 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon$1.211.91 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon$1.211.91 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon$1.211.91 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.38%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.21 | 87.38% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%rare 0.1%red 0.3%Mythical 3.0%other 96.5%best hit $255 (210.6x)