faded of green
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.74
4.31 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.63%
EV $2.43 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
9.79%
40 openings, odds method
Variance
19.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 47
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 40 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 40 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $271 427 HUNT_COIN | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert | 1 in 1,000 | $165 260 HUNT_COIN | 6.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 50 | $61.11 96.25 HUNT_COIN | 50.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| AK-47 | Wintergreen (Factory New)weapon · blue | 1 in 33 | $19.91 31.36 HUNT_COIN | 24.6% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| Souvenir Nova | Green Apple (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 33 | $8.04 12.67 HUNT_COIN | 10.0% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| Sticker | Green's Problemsticker · Rare | 10.0% | $0.22 0.35 HUNT_COIN | 0.9% | 4 | 4.0 | 1.00× |
| Zeus x27 | Swamp DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · Common | 81.8% | $0.05 0.08 HUNT_COIN | 1.7% | 35 | 32.7 | 1.07× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.63%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.74 | 88.63% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%Covert 0.1%extraordinary 2.0%blue 3.0%Industrial Grade 3.0%Rare 10.0%Common 81.8%best hit —