1% Gold Dream
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.68
8.94 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.30%
EV $4.96 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
216.72%
496 openings, odds method
Variance
180.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 200
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 496 openings and 2.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 496 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $2,236 3,522 HUNT_COIN | 45.1% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 250 | $338 533 HUNT_COIN | 27.3% | 4 | 2.0 | 2.02× |
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $271 427 HUNT_COIN | 27.3% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× |
| Sticker | NAF (Gold)sticker | 99.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.3% | 489 | 491.0 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$5.688.94 HUNT_COIN$338533 HUNT_COIN59.57x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$5.688.94 HUNT_COIN$338533 HUNT_COIN59.57x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$5.688.94 HUNT_COIN$338533 HUNT_COIN59.57x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$5.688.94 HUNT_COIN$338533 HUNT_COIN59.57x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.30%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.68 | 87.30% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.0%other 99.0%best hit $2,236 (393.9x)