Haze Case
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$15.45
24.34 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.38%
EV $13.50 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
104.09%
126 openings, odds method
Variance
196.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 200
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 126 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 126 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 10,000 | $15K 23,625 HUNT_COIN | 11.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested)gloves · epic | 1 in 5,000 | $9,151 14,413 HUNT_COIN | 13.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 3,333 | $4,167 6,562 HUNT_COIN | 9.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| P250 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 714 | $833 1,312 HUNT_COIN | 8.6% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 333 | $453 713 HUNT_COIN | 10.1% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| Souvenir Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted | 1 in 200 | $233 367 HUNT_COIN | 8.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| AWP | Green Energy (Factory New)weapon · rare | 1 in 100 | $183 289 HUNT_COIN | 13.6% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.79× |
| StatTrak™ USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $106 167 HUNT_COIN | 23.6% | 5 | 3.8 | 1.32× |
| Sticker | Green's Problemsticker · Rare | 95.0% | $0.22 0.35 HUNT_COIN | 1.6% | 118 | 119.7 | 0.99× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
P250 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New)weapon · restricted$15.4524.34 HUNT_COIN$8331,312 HUNT_COIN53.92x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.38%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $15.45 | 87.38% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%epic 0.0%restricted 0.9%rare 1.0%classified 3.0%Rare 95.0%best hit $833 (53.92x)