Farming and dreaming
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.08
0.12 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.79%
EV $0.07 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.15%
1,535 openings, odds method
Variance
1165.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,535 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000,000 | $2,028 3,194 HUNT_COIN | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,625 2,559 HUNT_COIN | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $0.33 0.52 HUNT_COIN | 72.4% | 228 | 230.2 | 0.99× |
| Sticker | Apekssticker | 35.0% | $0.03 0.04 HUNT_COIN | 13.0% | 515 | 537.3 | 0.96× |
| Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade | 50.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 9.3% | 792 | 767.5 | 1.03× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.080.12 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.17x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.080.12 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.17x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer GradeSKINS$0.080.12 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.17x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.080.12 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.17x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.79%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.08 | 89.79% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%restricted 15.0%other 35.0%Consumer Grade 50.0%best hit —