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MADNESS

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price
$0.03
0.04 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $0.02 from 2 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.87%
12.8K openings, odds method
Variance
1.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
100.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
89.47%±5.032,189 openings
7 days
88.67%±2.1312.2K openings
30 days
88.87%±2.0812.8K openings
since tracking started
88.87%±2.0812.8K openings
84.0%89.5%95.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h2,18989.47%±5.03−0.2σodds
7d12.2K88.67%±2.13−1.2σodds
30d12.8K88.87%±2.08−1.1σodds
All12.8K88.87%±2.08−1.1σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values2 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Sticker | Hot Rod Heatsticker · #4b69ff10.0%$0.11 0.18 HUNT_COIN50.0%1,2441283.30.97×
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade90.0%$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN50.0%11,58911549.71.00×
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer GradeCago$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.50x
Sticker | Hot Rod Heatsticker · #4b69ff$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN$0.110.18 HUNT_COIN4.50x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.50x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.50x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.50x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.50x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer GradeCalleballe$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.50x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.50x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.50x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.50x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$0.0390.00%2
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed#4b69ff 10.0%Consumer Grade 90.0%best hit —