5% Combo
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$104.52
165 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.99%
EV $90.93 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.29%
587 openings, odds method
Variance
20.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 587 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 400 | $4,507 7,098 HUNT_COIN | 12.4% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.68× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 400 | $4,333 6,825 HUNT_COIN | 11.9% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.68× |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 400 | $4,167 6,562 HUNT_COIN | 11.5% | 5 | 1.5 | 3.41× |
| ★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 400 | $2,546 4,010 HUNT_COIN | 7.0% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.68× |
| ★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $1,660 2,614 HUNT_COIN | 18.3% | 2 | 5.9 | 0.34× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $1,543 2,430 HUNT_COIN | 17.0% | 7 | 5.9 | 1.19× |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary | 1 in 100 | $1,055 1,662 HUNT_COIN | 11.6% | 8 | 5.9 | 1.36× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $868 1,367 HUNT_COIN | 9.5% | 3 | 5.9 | 0.51× |
| Sticker | Fade Lethalsticker · high | 95.0% | $0.83 1.3 HUNT_COIN | 0.9% | 559 | 557.6 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700Hobbi3ten$105165 HUNT_COIN$4,5077,098 HUNT_COIN43.12x
★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$105165 HUNT_COIN$4,1676,562 HUNT_COIN39.86x
★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinaryHobbi3ten$105165 HUNT_COIN$4,1676,562 HUNT_COIN39.86x
★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$105165 HUNT_COIN$4,1676,562 HUNT_COIN39.86x
★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$105165 HUNT_COIN$4,1676,562 HUNT_COIN39.86x
★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$105165 HUNT_COIN$4,1676,562 HUNT_COIN39.86x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeHobbi3ten$105165 HUNT_COIN$2,5464,010 HUNT_COIN24.36x
★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertHobbi3ten$105165 HUNT_COIN$1,6602,614 HUNT_COIN15.88x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $105 | 86.99% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#ffd700 0.3%covert 2.3%extraordinary 1.3%covert knife 0.3%legendary 1.0%high 95.0%best hit $4,507 (43.12x)