10% doppler
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$26.03
41 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.46%
EV $23.29 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
134.62%
28 openings, odds method
Variance
12.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 26
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 28 openings and 1.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 500 | $1,389 2,187 HUNT_COIN | 11.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 500 | $764 1,203 HUNT_COIN | 6.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife | 1 in 500 | $550 866 HUNT_COIN | 4.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 400 | $472 743 HUNT_COIN | 5.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Turtle (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $264 416 HUNT_COIN | 11.3% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 50 | $226 357 HUNT_COIN | 19.4% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 33 | $174 273 HUNT_COIN | 22.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)weapon · red | 1 in 24 | $79.78 126 HUNT_COIN | 14.2% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.58× |
| Sticker | Small Arms (Holo)sticker · Mythical | 89.0% | $1.14 1.8 HUNT_COIN | 4.4% | 22 | 24.9 | 0.88× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$26.0341 HUNT_COIN$226357 HUNT_COIN8.70x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.46%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $26.03 | 89.46% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 2.2%extraordinary 4.2%other 0.2%sunny 0.3%red 4.2%Mythical 89.0%best hit —