4% Potential
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$11.84
18.65 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.36%
EV $10.34 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
464.19%
15 openings, odds method
Variance
31.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
96.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 15 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Stiletto Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert$11.8418.65 HUNT_COIN$6781,067 HUNT_COIN57.24x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Stiletto Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert$11.8418.65 HUNT_COIN$6781,067 HUNT_COIN57.24x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.36%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $11.84 | 87.36% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 0.7%contraband 0.1%covert 0.8%mil spec 1.0%restricted 1.5%#d32ce6 96.0%best hit $678 (57.24x)