Painful 3%
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.48
5.48 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.53%
EV $3.05 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
14.90%
134 openings, odds method
Variance
194.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 200
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 134 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 134 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20,000 | $5,401 8,507 HUNT_COIN | 8.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted | 1 in 202 | $421 663 HUNT_COIN | 68.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| AWP | Sun in Leo (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 50 | $33.89 53.38 HUNT_COIN | 22.3% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.75× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer | 97.5% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.4% | 132 | 130.7 | 1.01× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 12 Nov, 02:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerIndia4life4416$3.485.48 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.53%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.48 | 87.53% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%Restricted 0.5%industrial 2.0%consumer 97.5%best hit —