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Rich Macho

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price
$7.15
11.26 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.38%
EV $6.25 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
165.21%
456 openings, odds method
Variance
150.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 200
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
6 openings · below min
7 days
210 openings · below min
30 days
456 openings · below min
since tracking started
456 openings · below min
-0.5%491.5%983.5%

Small sample. 456 openings and 2.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h60.89%±981.8—odds
7d210107.71%±166.0—odds
30d456165.21%±112.6—odds
All456165.21%±112.6—odds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 456 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary1 in 20,000$6,389 10,062 HUNT_COIN5.1%00.0—
★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic1 in 6,667$4,035 6,354 HUNT_COIN9.7%00.1—
AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 5,000$2,594 4,086 HUNT_COIN8.3%10.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 5,000$1,543 2,430 HUNT_COIN4.9%00.1—
★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 5,000$1,069 1,684 HUNT_COIN3.4%00.1—
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 5,000$849 1,338 HUNT_COIN2.7%00.1—
★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 500$458 722 HUNT_COIN14.7%30.9—
★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 500$367 577 HUNT_COIN11.7%10.9—
★ Moto Gloves | Turtle (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 500$264 416 HUNT_COIN8.4%00.9—
★ Moto Gloves | Boom! (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 333$194 306 HUNT_COIN9.3%01.40.00×
M4A1-S | Player Two (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 200$110 173 HUNT_COIN8.8%32.31.32×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Decimator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 200$85.97 135 HUNT_COIN6.9%32.31.32×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 200$62.22 98 HUNT_COIN5.0%72.33.07×
Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec97.5%$0.06 0.1 HUNT_COIN1.0%438444.60.99×
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert$7.1511.26 HUNT_COIN$2,5944,086 HUNT_COIN362.9x
★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$7.1511.26 HUNT_COIN$458722 HUNT_COIN64.09x
★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$7.1511.26 HUNT_COIN$458722 HUNT_COIN64.09x
★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$7.1511.26 HUNT_COIN$458722 HUNT_COIN64.09x
★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$7.1511.26 HUNT_COIN$367577 HUNT_COIN51.28x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil specDiabloPhD$7.1511.26 HUNT_COIN$0.060.1 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec$7.1511.26 HUNT_COIN$0.060.1 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec$7.1511.26 HUNT_COIN$0.060.1 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec$7.1511.26 HUNT_COIN$0.060.1 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec$7.1511.26 HUNT_COIN$0.060.1 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec$7.1511.26 HUNT_COIN$0.060.1 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec$7.1511.26 HUNT_COIN$0.060.1 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec$7.1511.26 HUNT_COIN$0.060.1 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec$7.1511.26 HUNT_COIN$0.060.1 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec$7.1511.26 HUNT_COIN$0.060.1 HUNT_COIN0.01x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.38%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$7.1587.38%14
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%epic 0.0%covert 0.6%sunny 0.0%extraordinary 0.9%classified 0.5%Covert 0.5%mil spec 97.5%best hit $2,594 (362.9x)