10% knife or gloves

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$9.90

15.59 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

87.38%

EV $8.65 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

99.08%

105 openings, odds method

Variance

12.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 25

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

105 openings · below min

30 days

105 openings · below min

since tracking started

105 openings · below min

30.0%99.0%168.0%

Small sample. 105 openings and 4.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	105	99.08%±68.2	—	odds
30d	105	99.08%±68.2	—	odds
All	105	99.08%±68.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 105 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 2,500	$961 1,514 HUNT_COIN	4.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knifeknife · covert	1 in 2,000	$566 891 HUNT_COIN	3.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,111	$324 511 HUNT_COIN	3.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$264 416 HUNT_COIN	3.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 500	$207 326 HUNT_COIN	4.8%	0	0.2	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 333	$113 179 HUNT_COIN	3.9%	0	0.3	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 250	$110 173 HUNT_COIN	5.1%	2	0.4	—
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$92.64 146 HUNT_COIN	5.4%	0	0.5	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 175	$89.47 141 HUNT_COIN	5.9%	2	0.6	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 118	$86.53 136 HUNT_COIN	8.5%	1	0.9	—
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Bronzed (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 111	$86.11 136 HUNT_COIN	9.0%	1	0.9	—
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$84.03 132 HUNT_COIN	9.7%	2	1.1	1.90×
★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 50	$61.11 96.25 HUNT_COIN	14.1%	2	2.1	0.95×
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 33	$54.91 86.49 HUNT_COIN	19.0%	3	3.1	0.95×
AUG \| Steel Sentinel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	90.0%	$0.04 0.07 HUNT_COIN	0.5%	92	94.5	0.97×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AUG | Steel Sentinel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial$9.9015.59 HUNT_COIN$0.040.07 HUNT_COIN0.00x2d

AUG | Steel Sentinel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrialNopejustbot$9.9015.59 HUNT_COIN$0.040.07 HUNT_COIN0.00x2d

AUG | Steel Sentinel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial$9.9015.59 HUNT_COIN$0.040.07 HUNT_COIN0.00x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.38%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$9.90	87.38%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedgold 0.5%covert 3.6%extraordinary 4.6%covert knife 1.3%industrial 90.0%best hit —